Bogus Refugees? The Determinants of Asylum Migration to Western Europe

This article analyses the determinants of asylum migration to Western Europe. Individuals in developing countries decide on whether to apply for asylum, balancing the costs of staying versus the costs of migrating. Results confirm that economic hardship as measured by income, growth and economic discrimination against ethnic minorities leads to higher flows of asylum seekers. Income and equity improvements in source countries can therefore reduce migration pressure. However, political oppression, human rights abuse, violent conflict and state failure are also important determinants, casting doubt on the mis-conception of all asylum seekers as ‘bogus’ (economic) refugees. Migration networks and geographical proximity are important facilitators of asylum flows as predicted by theory. Colonial experience, religious similarity and casual contact with the developed world (aid, trade and tourism) are not. Natural disasters and famines are also not statistically significant determinants. These events are typically short-term and unexpected, whereas asylum migration to Western Europe requires planning and preparation.